This analysis is solid. However, I'm more optimistic. If nothing changes, you've laid out the path. But change is possible. I remember when getting my masters in Rural Sociology at Iowa State more than a couple of decades ago, I noticed that Iowa had several thousand acre farms before the financial panics in the 1890s. There wasn't another 1000 acre farm until after WWII. I wish I could remember how I found that historical census of agriculture. Things are only invertible until they aren't. There are many reasons why social movements and economic consequences could set us on a different course. I'm not saying we're going to find that different course. But I do believe it's possible. Cleared eyed insights like this are important to building the movements needed.
I agree Matt - that's why I say "without a dramatic change in our approach" - we can, but first we have to recognize this is almost here and second we need that dramatic change in approach, whatever it may be.
I've been aware of the decline of the family farm ... it's not family farming anymore, it's corporate farming. Your article made me aware of a whole new threat. Thank you.
I've been reading The Iowa Mercury for a few months now, this article is prompting me to become a paid subscriber instead of a free loading subscriber :))
So well said. Seven years ago, I attended a conference where one of the speakers talked about the development and use of A.I. and how humans were not prepared for the amount of unemployment and other social changes that would come with it. It appears that person was correct.
Hmmmm. Living and farming on a river bluff has its advantages. The “big guys” equipment doesn’t fit between hills and valleys that should never have been row-cropped anyway. Prairie roots run deep, build their soils and spread their seed banks on prairie winds.
Chris, like us here, you will be some of the remaining folks who suffer the stink and cancers of the system surrounding you (some of this stuff volatizes for miles). And they're playing the long game - they'd still rather have your farmstead bulldozed than have to deal with your complaints or lawsuits over cancer. Your heirs will be the ones who decide and I suspect corporations figure everyone's got a price.
Amazon predicts that 600 thousand workers will lose their jobs to robots by 2030. It’s also been predicted that the vast majority of all manual labor jobs will be performed by robots in twenty years or less. But, as a kid I remember watching the cartoon show “The Jetson’s” with flying cars with little traffic, push button meals and a happy society where robot maids helped raise children and no one ever seemed to work, read poetry or write books. Who would want to live in such a world? Who could? Except the robots.
A very grim piece but let’s be real. This is the way it is going, isn’t it? Sci-Fi at its greatest. Thank you for assembling another eye opening account. I would like a copy for everyone in my village and every farmer in the township. There is a lot to do. Reaching out beyond our bubble is essential. Keep up the good work.
There are “People” making plans for our Farms. Agriculture is seen as just one more thing that is Anachronistic and Obsolete. The small farm and farmers will be gone in the not too distant future. Our farm was put together in 1870. How will we possibly be able to hold it intact. We are headed in the Wrong direction.
I hope since you have no land debt, Bud, you'll try some crops other than corn and soybeans. There are so many high value crops out there and if YOU don't want to learn how, there are so many young farmers who'd love a chance on a couple of acres.
So who gained from the increased production since the 1970's? Not the farmer for sure. Cheap food hasn't even helped the general population, just meant that the billionaires haven't had to raise wages.
I have read the comments and the replies. I fully understand the author’s points but what is a solution. All of us can point out problems but unless we propose solutions, you cannot gain real followers who will enact the needed actions. Yes joining Iowa Farmers Union (I am a member) and similar community support organizations is a first step. But primarily, ask why it is getting difficult to be a rural farmer. Most of these farms are small, average 250 acres compared to the big ones. How do we make these farms profitable?
I fully agree we need solutions, but only once we recognize the real threats - which are Big Ag, robotics and a system built on debt and usury, not necessarily in that order. Once we realize all of this is a function of power, we can organize against and around it. But that's a big lift at this point. I believe farmland trusts and other public charity and and government ownership of land is one avenue but there are many others.
I am reminded of all the politicians who roll through town on election years claiming to support "small family farmers". I assumed they were referring to the 3000 acre LLCs that make up our county. Now it sounds like those will disappear too. It is hard to thank you for this heart breaking article but thanks...
Over two hundred years ago there was a thing later called the “Industrial Revolution” and what that did to rural populations is overlooked, while what happened for industry is applauded! That is the reason history matters so much and why it is difficult to find real history classes in schools these days! Looking around, you will find “history instructors” are being hired, not for their skills as a teacher, but for their ability to coach, of perform some other tasks far more important than history! So the end result of this propaganda campaign that covers up much of the real “revolution” that happened then, is going to be revisited on rural populations once again with similar results. Those who disagree and fight back, will find inevitably find themselves on the end of a rope just as the “Luddites” did, or they will be treated to a one-way ticket to someplace and disappeared. Very similar to Trump eliminating migrants today. Democracy took on a very evil partner when they coupled up with capitalism. It has been on a long-term trajectory to completely undo democracy a piece at a time. It will eventually win every battle with the currency of power, MONEY! We are nearing a year of Trump in office and everyday we witness how our Constitution is violated, yet no one moves to really stop it! When our elected officials are as much a part of what is wrong, how could you expect anything else? The lower courts are finally standing up, but what remains is the Supreme Court that Trump appears to have in his pocket! Just wait, the train wreck is approaching, and we all will be effected!
Certainly! My thing in the business of radical disruption is , believe it or not, funding local stuff that works against the broken parts of the system. For a retired person it is my picking up cans and bottles for the deposits or scrap value. This year, and I am still collecting, I'm close to hitting $1,750 in deposits! I pay out to the ACLU, the local Migrant Inclusion group (ESL classes, medical check ups etc.), Clean Water through Chris Jones group and Project AWARE, the local food bank, and others big and small. I belong to the Democratic Party, but favor the Progressive ones more than the died in the wool crew! BERNIE SANDERS DEMOCRATS, my kind of people!
I have always appreciated your comments Steve and your commitment to cleaning up thrown away bottles and cans to support the organizations you believe in. Thank you.
This is why we in the resistance must undermine certain pillars of the system, because the courts and the congress aren't doing their jobs. But at Indivisible we're doing that. Hope you're part of it or the Iowa Farmers Union or anyone else out there getting stuff done.
Phew, Suzan. I don't have much to contribute except that I can see it and appreciate the rich discussion and reactions this generates. This reads like Parable of the Sower as well as articles I've read on the technofascist fantasy to have feudal labor again. I appreciate you outlining the scope of the challenge we face. I like the rally for hope in the comments too - we don't know what to do, but the desire to do something different is encouraging enough for me. That people want better for our communities and land can translate to being ready to face the uncertainty, try different things, and hopefully come up with some paths forward.
I think the more we appreciate that we need to gain power and fight back collectively, that just being a successful farmer who doesn't use robots to replace workers can be a form of resistance, or living in the countryside and maintaining a voice against the industry's damage can offer an alternative - all of these will be necessary if we want to slow or stop this trend.
Hello Suzan. Thanks for the recent article on farmless farms. You make some critical observations and beg the question, are we past the point of no return. As a former Iowan with farming ties to my family’s legacy farms in NW Iowa, I look through a lens of the demise of rural America that spreads responsible for rural failure over a broad diverse group. Farmers included.
Over a decade ago my family decided to shift from the convenience chemical based corn and beans farming model to organic. Our challenge was finding an organic row crop farmer to work with us. Our formula is a crop share agreement whereby we share 50/50 both the expenses and the yield with our organic operator. Our operator puts in the equipment/fuel and the labor and we put forward the farm with irrigation and tiling at our expense. At the time we shifted to organic, less than 1% of Iowa row crop farmers were organic. Today that percentage has hardly changed. Our yields go up and down due to weather and market conditions like everyone else. However.
This year our organic corn yield came out to around 200 bu/ac and sold for around $10.00+/bu. USDA data gave the 2025 national average yield of conventional corn at 189 bu/ac and current conventional corn is selling for $4.41/bu. You do the math.
Our organic beans show the same yields as conventional beans at market prices double++ that of conventional. As important, our entire organic market is within the US. None left over for export. Tariffs be damned!
My only point is that farmers too have choices as to what they plant and how they choose to farm. This year my family is looking more carefully at how we farm so as to NOT contribute to the nitrogen runoff in Iowa’s terrible water Dilemma. Iowa law states that mitigation of nitrogen runoff is discretionary. Ask our friends in Des Moines how many of their farm neighbors care to do anything about their contribution to the problem?
Every small step we make together makes a big difference in our quality of life and that of our communities. While I hope we are not at a point of no return I also understand that hope alone is not a strategy.
Hi Harn! I agree - conventional farmers have a hard time seeing alternatives. My take on that is too many of them are on the debt treadmill and can't or won't take the risk of changing their ways for fear of losing the last bit of certainty they think they have.
Over time we've seen farmers have fewer and fewer choices - feed, seed, land purchasing, etc. I think soon enough, too soon, they won't even have the choice of robotics or no robotics. Either they'll die before they have to switch or sell or their kids will sell. These corporations have a longer life expectancy than we humans! They can wait us out.
In your family's case, robotics might look very tempting. Organic farming is a lot of labor - if you could pencil out the cost of a tax-deductible weed bot, you might think it makes sense. Policy + Tech + "Market forces" = long-term harm to Rural America.
Hi Suzan. You cut farmers more slack than I might. I'm speaking only of row crop farmers. Our weed management is arcane. We walk beans spending $43k in '24. The robotic weed machine only goes 1 MPH. A big yawn. BUT we can do better and eliminate a lot of labor while mitigating Iowa's water fiasco if we turn to a five year rotation that includes a year long perennial cover crop, corn and beans rotation and no-till. We are looking into putting that in action in '26. Our '24 returned was just under $500/acre on a 50/50 crop/cost share program. I'm not bragging, just trying to be encouraging. And if "work" were really the issue, and too much for a farmer, they might consider another profession.
Under the scenario your have described, Iowa ag is in a world of hurt and will end up in bankruptcy under the current Iowa local, state and federal rule. But it doesn't have to be that way. The answer starts on the farm with votes and creative, solution based thinking. the answers are out there as is the opportunity for a healthy rural economy.
Wow Suzan, you nailed it. It is not hard to imagine that what you have written is real, I just don't want to go there. Surely, surely people will see this downside. Years ago Larry and I followed an organization that advocated for appropriate technology. Our tendency is to embrace everything tech. Such a bad idea! There are appropriate places and uses for modern technology. Let's use our heads to decide what is best for us.
Yeah, Denise, check out Youtube for ag robotics. One guy has an 8 row tractor that's tilling under his veggies. They program it in the shop and then drive it (with a remote) out to the field and let it go. The big boys like Deere probably won't waste their time with such small stuff...but I suspect will lead the way like WalMart led the way to lower prices and wages and the hollowing out of small town America.
Hard to "like" this. But I did anyway. Thanks.
This analysis is solid. However, I'm more optimistic. If nothing changes, you've laid out the path. But change is possible. I remember when getting my masters in Rural Sociology at Iowa State more than a couple of decades ago, I noticed that Iowa had several thousand acre farms before the financial panics in the 1890s. There wasn't another 1000 acre farm until after WWII. I wish I could remember how I found that historical census of agriculture. Things are only invertible until they aren't. There are many reasons why social movements and economic consequences could set us on a different course. I'm not saying we're going to find that different course. But I do believe it's possible. Cleared eyed insights like this are important to building the movements needed.
I agree Matt - that's why I say "without a dramatic change in our approach" - we can, but first we have to recognize this is almost here and second we need that dramatic change in approach, whatever it may be.
Yeah, we've got to TRY to be optimistic! But it's sad to imagine what the farm my great grandad bought in 1919 will look like in just another decade!
I've been aware of the decline of the family farm ... it's not family farming anymore, it's corporate farming. Your article made me aware of a whole new threat. Thank you.
I've been reading The Iowa Mercury for a few months now, this article is prompting me to become a paid subscriber instead of a free loading subscriber :))
So well said. Seven years ago, I attended a conference where one of the speakers talked about the development and use of A.I. and how humans were not prepared for the amount of unemployment and other social changes that would come with it. It appears that person was correct.
Hmmmm. Living and farming on a river bluff has its advantages. The “big guys” equipment doesn’t fit between hills and valleys that should never have been row-cropped anyway. Prairie roots run deep, build their soils and spread their seed banks on prairie winds.
Chris, like us here, you will be some of the remaining folks who suffer the stink and cancers of the system surrounding you (some of this stuff volatizes for miles). And they're playing the long game - they'd still rather have your farmstead bulldozed than have to deal with your complaints or lawsuits over cancer. Your heirs will be the ones who decide and I suspect corporations figure everyone's got a price.
Amazon predicts that 600 thousand workers will lose their jobs to robots by 2030. It’s also been predicted that the vast majority of all manual labor jobs will be performed by robots in twenty years or less. But, as a kid I remember watching the cartoon show “The Jetson’s” with flying cars with little traffic, push button meals and a happy society where robot maids helped raise children and no one ever seemed to work, read poetry or write books. Who would want to live in such a world? Who could? Except the robots.
A very grim piece but let’s be real. This is the way it is going, isn’t it? Sci-Fi at its greatest. Thank you for assembling another eye opening account. I would like a copy for everyone in my village and every farmer in the township. There is a lot to do. Reaching out beyond our bubble is essential. Keep up the good work.
Please forward it to anyone you think needs to see it!
The Department of Homeland Security will need to have their budget transferred to a newly created Department of Mental Health Services.
There are “People” making plans for our Farms. Agriculture is seen as just one more thing that is Anachronistic and Obsolete. The small farm and farmers will be gone in the not too distant future. Our farm was put together in 1870. How will we possibly be able to hold it intact. We are headed in the Wrong direction.
I hope since you have no land debt, Bud, you'll try some crops other than corn and soybeans. There are so many high value crops out there and if YOU don't want to learn how, there are so many young farmers who'd love a chance on a couple of acres.
So who gained from the increased production since the 1970's? Not the farmer for sure. Cheap food hasn't even helped the general population, just meant that the billionaires haven't had to raise wages.
I have read the comments and the replies. I fully understand the author’s points but what is a solution. All of us can point out problems but unless we propose solutions, you cannot gain real followers who will enact the needed actions. Yes joining Iowa Farmers Union (I am a member) and similar community support organizations is a first step. But primarily, ask why it is getting difficult to be a rural farmer. Most of these farms are small, average 250 acres compared to the big ones. How do we make these farms profitable?
I fully agree we need solutions, but only once we recognize the real threats - which are Big Ag, robotics and a system built on debt and usury, not necessarily in that order. Once we realize all of this is a function of power, we can organize against and around it. But that's a big lift at this point. I believe farmland trusts and other public charity and and government ownership of land is one avenue but there are many others.
I am reminded of all the politicians who roll through town on election years claiming to support "small family farmers". I assumed they were referring to the 3000 acre LLCs that make up our county. Now it sounds like those will disappear too. It is hard to thank you for this heart breaking article but thanks...
Yes, I understand. Makes me sad too, like we're living the sci fi we read about as kids...
Over two hundred years ago there was a thing later called the “Industrial Revolution” and what that did to rural populations is overlooked, while what happened for industry is applauded! That is the reason history matters so much and why it is difficult to find real history classes in schools these days! Looking around, you will find “history instructors” are being hired, not for their skills as a teacher, but for their ability to coach, of perform some other tasks far more important than history! So the end result of this propaganda campaign that covers up much of the real “revolution” that happened then, is going to be revisited on rural populations once again with similar results. Those who disagree and fight back, will find inevitably find themselves on the end of a rope just as the “Luddites” did, or they will be treated to a one-way ticket to someplace and disappeared. Very similar to Trump eliminating migrants today. Democracy took on a very evil partner when they coupled up with capitalism. It has been on a long-term trajectory to completely undo democracy a piece at a time. It will eventually win every battle with the currency of power, MONEY! We are nearing a year of Trump in office and everyday we witness how our Constitution is violated, yet no one moves to really stop it! When our elected officials are as much a part of what is wrong, how could you expect anything else? The lower courts are finally standing up, but what remains is the Supreme Court that Trump appears to have in his pocket! Just wait, the train wreck is approaching, and we all will be effected!
Certainly! My thing in the business of radical disruption is , believe it or not, funding local stuff that works against the broken parts of the system. For a retired person it is my picking up cans and bottles for the deposits or scrap value. This year, and I am still collecting, I'm close to hitting $1,750 in deposits! I pay out to the ACLU, the local Migrant Inclusion group (ESL classes, medical check ups etc.), Clean Water through Chris Jones group and Project AWARE, the local food bank, and others big and small. I belong to the Democratic Party, but favor the Progressive ones more than the died in the wool crew! BERNIE SANDERS DEMOCRATS, my kind of people!
I have always appreciated your comments Steve and your commitment to cleaning up thrown away bottles and cans to support the organizations you believe in. Thank you.
This is why we in the resistance must undermine certain pillars of the system, because the courts and the congress aren't doing their jobs. But at Indivisible we're doing that. Hope you're part of it or the Iowa Farmers Union or anyone else out there getting stuff done.
Really well presented and unfortunately scarily prescient. American genocide.
Phew, Suzan. I don't have much to contribute except that I can see it and appreciate the rich discussion and reactions this generates. This reads like Parable of the Sower as well as articles I've read on the technofascist fantasy to have feudal labor again. I appreciate you outlining the scope of the challenge we face. I like the rally for hope in the comments too - we don't know what to do, but the desire to do something different is encouraging enough for me. That people want better for our communities and land can translate to being ready to face the uncertainty, try different things, and hopefully come up with some paths forward.
I think the more we appreciate that we need to gain power and fight back collectively, that just being a successful farmer who doesn't use robots to replace workers can be a form of resistance, or living in the countryside and maintaining a voice against the industry's damage can offer an alternative - all of these will be necessary if we want to slow or stop this trend.
Hello Suzan. Thanks for the recent article on farmless farms. You make some critical observations and beg the question, are we past the point of no return. As a former Iowan with farming ties to my family’s legacy farms in NW Iowa, I look through a lens of the demise of rural America that spreads responsible for rural failure over a broad diverse group. Farmers included.
Over a decade ago my family decided to shift from the convenience chemical based corn and beans farming model to organic. Our challenge was finding an organic row crop farmer to work with us. Our formula is a crop share agreement whereby we share 50/50 both the expenses and the yield with our organic operator. Our operator puts in the equipment/fuel and the labor and we put forward the farm with irrigation and tiling at our expense. At the time we shifted to organic, less than 1% of Iowa row crop farmers were organic. Today that percentage has hardly changed. Our yields go up and down due to weather and market conditions like everyone else. However.
This year our organic corn yield came out to around 200 bu/ac and sold for around $10.00+/bu. USDA data gave the 2025 national average yield of conventional corn at 189 bu/ac and current conventional corn is selling for $4.41/bu. You do the math.
Our organic beans show the same yields as conventional beans at market prices double++ that of conventional. As important, our entire organic market is within the US. None left over for export. Tariffs be damned!
My only point is that farmers too have choices as to what they plant and how they choose to farm. This year my family is looking more carefully at how we farm so as to NOT contribute to the nitrogen runoff in Iowa’s terrible water Dilemma. Iowa law states that mitigation of nitrogen runoff is discretionary. Ask our friends in Des Moines how many of their farm neighbors care to do anything about their contribution to the problem?
Every small step we make together makes a big difference in our quality of life and that of our communities. While I hope we are not at a point of no return I also understand that hope alone is not a strategy.
All the best, Harn
Hi Harn! I agree - conventional farmers have a hard time seeing alternatives. My take on that is too many of them are on the debt treadmill and can't or won't take the risk of changing their ways for fear of losing the last bit of certainty they think they have.
Over time we've seen farmers have fewer and fewer choices - feed, seed, land purchasing, etc. I think soon enough, too soon, they won't even have the choice of robotics or no robotics. Either they'll die before they have to switch or sell or their kids will sell. These corporations have a longer life expectancy than we humans! They can wait us out.
In your family's case, robotics might look very tempting. Organic farming is a lot of labor - if you could pencil out the cost of a tax-deductible weed bot, you might think it makes sense. Policy + Tech + "Market forces" = long-term harm to Rural America.
Hi Suzan. You cut farmers more slack than I might. I'm speaking only of row crop farmers. Our weed management is arcane. We walk beans spending $43k in '24. The robotic weed machine only goes 1 MPH. A big yawn. BUT we can do better and eliminate a lot of labor while mitigating Iowa's water fiasco if we turn to a five year rotation that includes a year long perennial cover crop, corn and beans rotation and no-till. We are looking into putting that in action in '26. Our '24 returned was just under $500/acre on a 50/50 crop/cost share program. I'm not bragging, just trying to be encouraging. And if "work" were really the issue, and too much for a farmer, they might consider another profession.
Under the scenario your have described, Iowa ag is in a world of hurt and will end up in bankruptcy under the current Iowa local, state and federal rule. But it doesn't have to be that way. The answer starts on the farm with votes and creative, solution based thinking. the answers are out there as is the opportunity for a healthy rural economy.
Love it Harn! You guys are leading the way.
Wow Suzan, you nailed it. It is not hard to imagine that what you have written is real, I just don't want to go there. Surely, surely people will see this downside. Years ago Larry and I followed an organization that advocated for appropriate technology. Our tendency is to embrace everything tech. Such a bad idea! There are appropriate places and uses for modern technology. Let's use our heads to decide what is best for us.
Yeah, Denise, check out Youtube for ag robotics. One guy has an 8 row tractor that's tilling under his veggies. They program it in the shop and then drive it (with a remote) out to the field and let it go. The big boys like Deere probably won't waste their time with such small stuff...but I suspect will lead the way like WalMart led the way to lower prices and wages and the hollowing out of small town America.